Projects

Designing flood triggers for anticipatory action in Bangladesh and Nigeria

We partnered with GiveDirectly to design and develop flood triggers for targeted regions in Bangladesh and Nigeria. The flood triggers enabled GiveDirectly to implement cash transfer programmes, providing timely support to communities at risk of flooding.

Responding to flood risk

Flooding poses significant challenges to communities in Bangladesh and Nigeria. Many residents face economic and logistical barriers to preparing for and recovering from floods, leaving them at heightened risk of disruption to their livelihoods and access to essential services. Traditional flood response models often focus on post-disaster assistance, addressing immediate needs but offering limited support for long-term resilience.

This project developed flood triggers that enable anticipatory action, allowing communities to take proactive measures before flooding occurs. By linking these triggers with cash transfer programmes, the approach provides targeted, timely support to help households prepare and recover effectively.

What did we do?

Development of the system involved the following key activities:

  • Review of meteorological, hydrological, and exposure data to support trigger development.
  • Translating river flow data into forecasted flood footprints and overlaying these with population exposure data to estimate impacted communities.
  • Collaborating with GiveDirectly to calibrate flood impact thresholds, considering local infrastructure, cultural contexts, and mitigation strategies.
  • Trialling the triggers during the 2024 rainy season (using data provided by the Google Flood Forecasting Team and the GiveDirectly country teams) to evaluate their performance and impact.

Building resilience through innovation

By implementing flood triggers, GiveDirectly has supported communities in Bangladesh and Nigeria to better prepare for and respond to flooding. This anticipatory action approach:

  • Reduces the immediate impact of flooding by providing residents with the resources they need to protect their homes and families.
  • Supports recovery through targeted cash transfers, enabling residents to rebuild in a way that increases resilience to future floods.
  • Demonstrates that effective anticipatory action is achievable even in regions with limited data availability, offering a blueprint for similar projects in other countries.

 

Partnering with JBA was instrumental in delivering anticipatory cash in Nigeria and Bangladesh in 2024, guided by co-designed triggers informed by Google’s Floodhub tool. We are excited to continue this collaboration, scaling the reach and precision of anticipatory cash to better support those living on the frontlines of natural disasters.

Federico Barreras, Humanitarian Manager at GiveDirectly

Next steps

As a pilot study, the project has highlighted valuable insights for future refinement. JBA is now working with GiveDirectly to improve the system for upcoming flood seasons in Bangladesh. This includes enhancing trigger performance by incorporating additional local datasets and integrating into our flood impact forecasting system, Flood Foresight.

The pilot has also successfully demonstrated a robust and adaptable trigger mechanism for regions with limited data, providing a model for proactive disaster response in diverse and challenging contexts. The pilot offers a replicable model for efficiently implementing similar systems in other regions using Flood Foresight. By linking flood triggers with cash transfer programmes, communities can better prepare for flooding, protect their homes and livelihoods and build long-term resilience to climate risks.

This work benefited from our previous experience in developing models, trigger mechanisms and providing flood forecasting and calculation agent services around anticipatory action, disaster risk financing and parametric insurance schemes.

To learn more about our work in anticipatory action and disaster resilience, contact our team.

 

Location:

Bangladesh, Nigeria

Client:

GiveDirectly

Expertise:

Forecasting and early warning
Disaster risk financing and parametric insurance

Delivered By:

JBA Consulting

Partners & Collaborators:

GiveDirectly country teams
Google Flood Forecasting Team
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