Projects

Supporting humanitarian anticipatory action in the Jamuna River basin, Bangladesh

We are continuing to support Start Network by developing a real-time flood impact forecasting system. This system enables anticipatory action and pre-emptive responses to protect communities before flood events occur.

Growing flood risks in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most flood-prone countries in the world, with millions of people exposed to the impacts of extreme flooding each year. Communities vulnerable to flooding face significant challenges, including loss of life, disrupted livelihoods and infrastructure damage, often with limited resources for recovery. As the climate emergency intensifies, there is an urgent need for systems that enable early action and provide targeted support to those most at risk.

Real-time flood impact forecasting for anticipatory action

Working with Start Network, we developed a real-time flood impact forecasting system for four districts in the Jamuna River basin – Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, and Sirajganj. Powered by JBA’s unique Flood Foresight technology, the system predicts the timing, location, extent, and depth of flooding while also estimating the number of people living in affected catchments and districts up to 10 days ahead. JBA’s Global Flood Model was used to quantify the flood risk, informing the definition of population-based trigger thresholds. This combination of flood risk understanding coupled with forecast analytics, allows local governments and NGOs to trigger vital anticipatory action, such as rapid financing, a crucial element of building resilience in these districts.

 

“Disaster Risk Financing supports humanitarians to be better prepared in advance of crisis. In developing a flood model that will support our members to quantify the risks in advance, develop contingency plans to act early, and pre-position financing, we can act earlier to help vulnerable communities and families before a disaster turns into a large-scale crisis.”

Lucretia Puentes, Director of Network and Funds, Start Network

An integrated solution for impact-based forecasting

We combined advanced flood modelling, forecasting technologies, and dashboard analytics to create an integrated impact-based system:

  • Flood risk modelling: Using JBA’s Global Flood Model, we quantified flood risks to populations, producing outputs such as annual average loss estimates and exceedance probability curves for each district.
  • Probabilistic forecasting: We coupled the Copernicus Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) and our Global Flood Maps with our Flood Foresight technology to generate daily probabilistic forecasts of flood inundation extents and depths.
  • Population impact analysis: These digital forecasts were used to provide daily estimates of populations at risk of imminent floods throughout the wet season, providing actionable data for humanitarian agencies.
  • Dashboard development: A bespoke online dashboard was created to visualise population impact forecasts alongside predefined triggers for anticipatory action. This fully automated system supports Start Network in making timely, data-driven decisions to minimise humanitarian impacts.

Supporting anticipatory action

This project has enabled Start Network and its partners to take pre-emptive action and release pre-positioned funds ahead of flood events. By integrating global and local data, our systems are able to underpin disaster risk financing and insurance, thus increasing the effectiveness of humanitarian early action.

Start Network’s ‘Start Ready’ programme has transformed funding mechanisms by pooling risks and resources, allowing member organisations to act up to three times faster than traditional humanitarian funding models. Christina Bennett, CEO of Start Network, highlighted the transformative impact of the programme, stating:

 

“The climate emergency is escalating rapidly, and humanitarian funding is not keeping pace. We are delighted that the vision of Start Ready has become a reality. Pre-emptive climate risk financing is revolutionising the humanitarian sector by making funding more efficient and effective. Start Ready is helping communities become more resilient to climate risks – and save more lives.”

Christina Bennett, CEO, Start Network

Building resilience for the future

Reducing the impacts of floods and extreme weather events is central to our mission to create a resilient future for all. By providing robust flood forecasting and risk modelling solutions, we are supporting communities and organisations to anticipate and adapt to growing climate risks.

To learn more about our work in Bangladesh, contact our team.

Location:

Bangladesh

Client:

Start Network

Expertise:

Hazard and risk modelling
Forecasting and early warning
Disaster risk financing and parametric insurance

Delivered By:

JBA Consulting
JBA Risk Management
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