We worked with AXA XL and the InsuResilience Solutions Fund, managed by the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, to assess flood risk to more than 52,000 public schools across Peru. The project developed hazard and vulnerability models to inform sustainable insurance solutions and strengthen long-term resilience in the education sector.
Peru’s public education system faces frequent disruption and damage from floods and earthquakes, which together pose significant risks to safety and infrastructure. With state-run schools spread across diverse geographies – from the Andean highlands to low-lying coastal plains – exposure and vulnerability vary greatly.
Heavy rainfall and river flooding, often intensified during El Niño events, are persistent challenges throughout the wet season, while seismic activity continues to threaten many urban and rural areas. For the government, the cumulative financial burden of these events represents a significant national cost.
To address this, the Peruvian Association of Insurance Companies (APESEG) and its partners launched a data-driven initiative to build a more sustainable and transparent risk transfer mechanism. The collaboration brought together insurers, risk modellers and government agencies to strengthen the long-term resilience of the education sector.
JBA led the flood risk component of the project, developing detailed models that reflect the unique characteristics of Peru’s schools. Using data from the Ministry of Education’s national database (Minedu), our team validated and refined information on each school’s location, structure and condition.
We created bespoke vulnerability (depth–damage) curves to represent how different types of school buildings – based on size, height, materials and occupancy – are likely to be affected by flooding. These curves, combined with new exposure datasets and hazard information, formed the foundation of a Probabilistic Flood Model capable of estimating potential financial losses for each school.
In parallel, earthquake risk analysis was undertaken by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM). Together, the flood and earthquake models provided a comprehensive, multi-hazard view of risk to Peru’s education infrastructure.
This collaborative approach brought together expertise from across the insurance, modelling, and public sectors. By combining national data, scientific analysis, and sector experience, the project supported the design of insurance products that better reflect the risks schools face across different regions.
The results quantified expected annual losses and the probability of extreme events, providing key metrics such as Average Annual Loss (AAL), Aggregate Exceedance Probability (AEP), and Occurrence Exceedance Probability (OEP). These insights are helping the government and the insurance sector make more informed decisions on premiums, claims handling, and future investment in safer, more resilient schools.
Contact our team to learn more about this project.
