Working on behalf of the World Bank, we assessed future flood risk in the Tocumen catchment. This informed land-use planning and demonstrated the important role that nature-based solutions play in climate resilience.
The catchment of the River Tocumen has undergone rapid urbanisation in recent decades. This has resulted in a loss and degradation of natural habitats, including deforestation in upper catchments, urbanisation in the fluvial floodplains and most recently a rapid loss of coastal mangroves due to land raising for property development. Spatial planning policies and laws have not kept up with the city’s transition to a regional and international hub, with a lack of adequate zoning, building control and drainage all contributing to flood and erosion risk. Compounding these challenges are the effects of a changing climate, which are introducing new pressures and intensifying existing risks.
An integrated hydraulic model of coastal, fluvial and pluvial flooding sources, supported by a new analysis of sea-level rise and land use, was used to model three alternative futures for the Tocumen catchment:
The study illustrated that when coupled with improved spatial planning and development control, floodplain and mangrove regeneration will play an important role in climate resilience, while also delivering broader livelihood benefits.
The study made recommendations for all sectors involved in or able to influence flood and erosion risk management. Opportunities were identified in two currently undeveloped floodplain areas to both optimise their topography to store and reduce flood peaks, and to provide space for recreation and high-quality development zones on higher ground.
Through our investigation, we enhanced the Municipality’s evidence base to support its emerging district plan. Capacity building was delivered to a wide range of stakeholders and was used to develop a training session at the 2020 Understanding Risk CentroAmérica (URCA 2020) conference.
To find out more about our work in Panama, contact our team. You can also read more about this assignment on the World Bank website.
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