Working on behalf of the Asian Development Bank, this project developed robust, transferable approaches to understanding typhoon driven coastal flood risk in the Philippines, providing new evidence to inform flood risk management, planning and long-term coastal resilience.
The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, with typhoons posing a severe and recurring threat to coastal communities. This risk has been starkly illustrated by events such as Tropical Cyclone Haiyan in 2013, which generated a storm surge exceeding 6 metres and caused more than 6,000 fatalities in the Tacloban region, highlighting the potential impacts of extreme coastal flooding.
Despite this exposure, there has historically been limited understanding of the probability and scale of typhoon-induced coastal flooding across the country. This lack of robust evidence has constrained efforts to protect communities and to design appropriate flood risk management measures.
Working closely with Landell Mills and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), JBA led the development of new Good Practice methodologies for estimating extreme sea levels in the Philippines.
The approach was first applied to the mouth of the Jalaur River and the nearby coastal city of Iloilo, where the results are directly informing an ongoing flood risk management scheme. Crucially, the methodology was designed to be transferable, allowing PAGASA and other organisations to apply it across other coastal locations nationally.
The work combined advanced modelling and statistical techniques, including:
The project was delivered through close collaboration between JBA and PAGASA, with a strong emphasis on knowledge sharing, training and engagement. This approach has helped raise the profile of coastal flood risk within the Philippines while embedding technical capability locally.
As a result, PAGASA now has the tools and understanding to apply the methodology independently, supporting future national-scale assessments and longer-term coastal resilience planning.
Contact our team to learn more about this project.
