We worked with the World Bank to produce National Flood Risk Briefs for 12 countries across Africa and Asia. The briefs are used to support early government engagement and prioritise disaster risk reduction and financing strategies.
Many countries face increasing flood risk but lack the information to make informed decisions about how to manage it. To address this, we developed a series of flood risk briefs that concisely summarise hazard, exposure and the probability of flood impacts occurring at the national level. Impacts are assessed in terms of the number of people affected and economic loss.
Each brief is compiled using our probabilistic Global Flood Models and includes both historic and simulated flood impacts. The results are presented as province-level maps, designed to support planning decisions from the outset.
The project was delivered in two phases, covering 12 countries:
We began by identifying and sourcing appropriate exposure data for each country, using datasets such as METEOR and GED4ALL. We then created probabilistic flood models for each country, bringing together the components of exposure, hazard and vulnerability to assess potential impacts at national and subnational levels. The resulting loss estimates were validated against historic flood events to provide context on the intensity of past events and to ensure losses align with experience. The outputs were then formatted into concise, standardised briefing documents – clear, accessible PDFs designed for early-stage planning. Throughout the process, we worked closely with the World Bank to review and refine each summary.
The briefs are now informing planning and investment decisions by governments across multiple countries. By providing a clear national picture of flood risk, they support:
While this project focused on understanding current flood risk, the same modelling approach can be extended to explore how risk may change under future climate scenarios. By integrating the latest, internationally recognised climate data into our Global Flood Models, we can assess potential flood impacts under different warming trajectories and time horizons. The analysis can also be tailored using client-provided data or refined to a more granular spatial scale, enabling a more detailed assessment of localised impacts. Understanding how flood risk may change over time provides valuable insight to support decision making in the most climate sensitive regions.
This approach provides a practical way to generate trusted flood risk insights – particularly in countries where data is limited. The briefs are now being used to support decision-making and early engagement across a range of resilience initiatives.
Contact our team to learn more about this project.
